Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 144,776
2 Rhode Island 143,627
3 South Dakota 140,521
4 Utah 127,418
5 Tennessee 124,480
6 Arizona 121,593
7 Iowa 117,984
8 Wisconsin 116,101
9 Nebraska 115,649
10 South Carolina 115,480
11 Oklahoma 114,757
12 New Jersey 114,666
13 Arkansas 113,634
14 Delaware 112,167
15 Indiana 111,573
16 Alabama 111,528
17 Illinois 109,718
18 Kansas 108,863
19 Florida 108,477
20 New York 108,232
21 Idaho 108,208
22 Mississippi 107,079
23 Minnesota 106,963
24 Nevada 106,028
25 Montana 105,446
26 Wyoming 105,295
27 Georgia 103,862
28 Kentucky 103,554
29 Massachusetts 102,786
30 Texas 102,485
31 Louisiana 102,102
32 Missouri 100,960
33 Michigan 99,560
34 Connecticut 97,681
35 New Mexico 97,205
36 California 96,147
37 North Carolina 96,067
38 Colorado 95,760
39 Alaska 95,693
40 Pennsylvania 94,632
41 Ohio 94,594
42 West Virginia 90,799
43 Virginia 79,340
44 Maryland 76,265
45 New Hampshire 72,806
46 District of Columbia 69,609
47 Washington 58,323
48 Puerto Rico 54,093
49 Maine 50,872
50 Oregon 48,370
51 Vermont 38,942
52 Hawaii 25,045

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Wyoming 183
2 Texas 161
3 Nevada 128
4 Louisiana 119
5 Montana 103
6 Washington 98
7 Idaho 94
8 Missouri 94
9 Colorado 91
10 West Virginia 91
11 Alabama 85
12 Utah 81
13 Kentucky 69
14 North Carolina 68
15 Indiana 61
16 Kansas 60
17 Oregon 60
18 Arizona 55
19 Mississippi 55
20 New Mexico 55
21 Arkansas 54
22 Alaska 53
23 Rhode Island 50
24 Oklahoma 45
25 North Dakota 43
26 Georgia 40
27 Maine 37
28 Michigan 37
29 Wisconsin 36
30 Connecticut 34
31 Delaware 33
32 Pennsylvania 33
33 Tennessee 33
34 Ohio 30
35 New Hampshire 29
36 South Carolina 28
37 District of Columbia 27
38 Illinois 27
39 Minnesota 27
40 California 26
41 Nebraska 26
42 Vermont 25
43 New York 24
44 Hawaii 23
45 Iowa 23
46 New Jersey 22
47 South Dakota 19
48 Massachusetts 18
49 Virginia 18
50 Maryland 15
51 Puerto Rico 14
52 Florida 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,961
2 New York 2,720
3 Massachusetts 2,600
4 Rhode Island 2,569
5 Mississippi 2,468
6 Arizona 2,433
7 Connecticut 2,315
8 Alabama 2,294
9 Louisiana 2,286
10 South Dakota 2,286
11 Pennsylvania 2,145
12 Michigan 2,067
13 New Mexico 2,047
14 Indiana 2,036
15 North Dakota 2,031
16 Illinois 2,005
17 Arkansas 1,939
18 Iowa 1,928
19 Georgia 1,919
20 South Carolina 1,895
21 Oklahoma 1,851
22 Nevada 1,823
23 Tennessee 1,814
24 Texas 1,792
25 Kansas 1,763
26 Delaware 1,722
27 Florida 1,721
28 Ohio 1,712
29 District of Columbia 1,611
30 California 1,609
31 Kentucky 1,603
32 Maryland 1,597
33 Missouri 1,593
34 West Virginia 1,588
35 Montana 1,530
36 Wisconsin 1,373
37 Minnesota 1,342
38 Virginia 1,319
39 Nebraska 1,300
40 North Carolina 1,263
41 Wyoming 1,252
42 Idaho 1,185
43 Colorado 1,179
44 New Hampshire 998
45 Puerto Rico 790
46 Washington 766
47 Utah 723
48 Oregon 651
49 Maine 627
50 Alaska 481
51 Vermont 410
52 Hawaii 354

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 West Virginia 6
2 Alabama 3
3 Colorado 2
4 Idaho 2
5 Kansas 2
6 Michigan 2
7 Mississippi 2
8 Missouri 2
9 North Carolina 2
10 Oregon 2
11 Wisconsin 2
12 Wyoming 2
13 Connecticut 1
14 Georgia 1
15 Illinois 1
16 Indiana 1
17 Iowa 1
18 Kentucky 1
19 Louisiana 1
20 Montana 1
21 Nevada 1
22 New Jersey 1
23 New Mexico 1
24 Ohio 1
25 Pennsylvania 1
26 Rhode Island 1
27 Texas 1
28 Alaska 0
29 Arizona 0
30 Arkansas 0
31 California 0
32 Delaware 0
33 District of Columbia 0
34 Florida 0
35 Hawaii 0
36 Maine 0
37 Maryland 0
38 Massachusetts 0
39 Minnesota 0
40 Nebraska 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 New York 0
43 North Dakota 0
44 Oklahoma 0
45 Puerto Rico 0
46 South Carolina 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Tennessee 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Virginia 0
52 Washington -1

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 394,517 1 99
Crowley Colorado 364,461 2 99
Bent Colorado 276,851 3 99
Maverick Texas 260,924 4 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,339 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 143,289 191 93
Richland South Carolina 113,737 998 68
York South Carolina 113,688 1000 68
Orange California 85,824 2265 27
Pierce Washington 61,857 2828 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Hancock Georgia 8,041 3 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,603 1857 40
York South Carolina 1,384 2109 32
Richland South Carolina 1,381 2112 32
Davidson Tennessee 1,373 2126 32
Pierce Washington 734 2773 11

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons